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#CollegeMeltdown According to National Center for Education Statistics charts , public higher education institutions overall experienced increased revenues in recent years, but private colleges saw a $46 Billion loss in revenues from 2013 to 2015 . Bear in mind that the numbers are not up-to-date, so this pattern may have improved, stabilized, or worsened since 2016. But with student enrollment continuing to decrease, declining private college revenue numbers may be a harbinger of a larger meltdown. In 2016, EY suggested that as many as 805 colleges faced significant challenges due to low enrollment numbers and unsustainable finances. Some of private college revenue losses may due to a tuition discounting. In any case, drops in institutional revenues for a significant period require cost cutting, which frequently means cuts in teachers and staff. Conditions at individual private colleges may be vastly different, from thriving and growing to downsizing and closing.

The National Center for Education Statistics is moderating its perspective on US higher education enrollment . Earlier NCES reports projected college enrollment to grow to more than 22 million students by 2023. In the Department of Education's The Condition of Education 2018 report, NCES projects enrollment to recover to 17.4 million undergraduate students by 2027, after six consecutive years of losses. But even these more moderate numbers may be too rosy if NCES projections are already off from 2017 and the first half of 2018, as National Student Clearinghouse numbers would suggest. Unless there are major policy changes at the federal, state, and local levels, it's not impossible to project a more dismal picture. These positive changes would need to address social inequality in the US, including the savage inequalities in K-12 education and college affordability for working-class families.

The National Student Clearinghouse has provided College Meltdown with state by state changes in college enrollment from Fall 2011 to Fall 2017.  The chart is listed in order of percentage loss or gain.  New Mexico, Hawaii, Illinois, Michigan, and Alaska were hardest hit.  Twenty two states experienced losses of 10 percent or more.   Six states increased their enrollment from 2011 to 2017.  New Hampshire and Utah, the two largest gainers, increased their enrollment by having a large online presence (Southern New Hampshire University and BYU online).   State Change % Change N Fall 2017 Fall 2011 Multi-State Institutions -53% -724,715 645,035 1,369,750 New Mexico -20% -28,468 115,734 144,202 Hawaii -19% -12,700 52,938 65,638 Illinois -19% -141,554 616,520 758,074 Michigan -19% -117,285 516,291 633,576 Alas...

Dahn Shaulis dahneshaulis@gmail.com The Department of Education's predictions about college enrollment may overestimate the number of students in 2023 by 5-7 million.   At what point will President Donald Trump's Department of Education realize that US higher education is facing dramatic losses in enrollment, and that their rosy projections are so wrong? According to the National Student Clearinghouse , higher education enrollment has declined by 2.4 million students since 2010-2011. And the greatest losses have come from community colleges , which have experienced a 1.6 million student decline. The US Department of Education, however, projects a consistent upward trend in enrollment despite acknowledging consistent losses from 2011 to 2015.   Optimistic analysts suggest that the enrollment declines are the result of an improved economy, where jobs are more prevalent. But this pollyanna analysis belies the underlying problems in higher education and the greater economy that ...

Dahn Shaulis dahneshaulis@gmail.com The US College Meltdown is not a fast-moving crash, nor is it felt evenly across the nation. That's why many professionals still deny this characterization of crushing student loan debt and five consecutive years of declining enrollment numbers. For-profit colleges, HBCUs, community colleges, and small rural private colleges have been hardest hit by the meltdown, while elite colleges and flagship universities continue to rake in tens of billions in revenues. States and counties display different patterns during the College Meltdown. Four factors in determining where community colleges and second- and third-tier state colleges are most vulnerable to the College Meltdown include : (1) states with declining college enrollments and (2) declining numbers of high school graduates , (3) states that have already been cutting state funding of colleges and community colleges , and (4) states and counties with above average indebtedness. I am in the proce...

Dahn Shaulis dahneshaulis@gmail.com Community college enrollment has dropped by 1.6 million students (23%) in the last six years.  Even worse, full-time enrollment at community colleges has dropped by 36% over the last 6 years. Source for Data: National Student Clearinghouse. US college enrollment has dropped by about 2.5 million students over the last six years, but this College Meltdown has not been spread evenly. For-profit colleges have been hardest hit in their percentage decline of students and campus closings. But community colleges, which may be the best educational value for working families, have been even harder hit in the sheer numbers who are not attending. While the for-profit college crash has been well documented in the media, the crisis in community colleges has been under-reported. For-profit colleges have seen a decline of about 600,000 students since their peak, but community college enrollment has declined even more, by 1.6 million. [Image below:  ...

Dahn Shaulis dahneshaulis@gmail.com This chart illustrates the mostly downward movement of the College Meltdown.  Overall, revenues to higher education institutions continue to rise, but these numbers mask the many weaknesses in the system. What we are looking at is unsustainable.  While elite colleges and brand name colleges will continue to thrive, many for-profit colleges, Historically Black Colleges and Universities, community colleges, and lesser valued public and private colleges will suffer. This trend may be disturbing for working people and their families, but it is also an opportunity for others to consolidate power and increase profits.