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The National Center for Education Statistics is moderating its perspective on US higher education enrollment . Earlier NCES reports projected college enrollment to grow to more than 22 million students by 2023. In the Department of Education's The Condition of Education 2018 report, NCES projects enrollment to recover to 17.4 million undergraduate students by 2027, after six consecutive years of losses. But even these more moderate numbers may be too rosy if NCES projections are already off from 2017 and the first half of 2018, as National Student Clearinghouse numbers would suggest. Unless there are major policy changes at the federal, state, and local levels, it's not impossible to project a more dismal picture. These positive changes would need to address social inequality in the US, including the savage inequalities in K-12 education and college affordability for working-class families.

The National Student Clearinghouse has provided College Meltdown with state by state changes in college enrollment from Fall 2011 to Fall 2017.  The chart is listed in order of percentage loss or gain.  New Mexico, Hawaii, Illinois, Michigan, and Alaska were hardest hit.  Twenty two states experienced losses of 10 percent or more.   Six states increased their enrollment from 2011 to 2017.  New Hampshire and Utah, the two largest gainers, increased their enrollment by having a large online presence (Southern New Hampshire University and BYU online).   State Change % Change N Fall 2017 Fall 2011 Multi-State Institutions -53% -724,715 645,035 1,369,750 New Mexico -20% -28,468 115,734 144,202 Hawaii -19% -12,700 52,938 65,638 Illinois -19% -141,554 616,520 758,074 Michigan -19% -117,285 516,291 633,576 Alas...